Electricity demand in the Middle East and N Africa tripled between 2000 and 2024 as populations and incomes rose. Based on today’s policy settings, the region’s electricity consumption is projected to rise by another 50% by 2035 – adding the equivalent of the current demand of Germany and Spain combined.

With a climate characterised by extreme heat and water scarcity in most parts of the region, the largest portion of the projected increase in electricity demand over the next decade – around 40% – is set to come from cooling and desalination, according to an IEA report. Other important factors driving up electricity consumption in the region include urbanisation, industrialisation, the electrification of transport and the expansion of digital infrastructure such as data centres.

Today, natural gas and oil overwhelmingly dominate the region’s electricity mix, accounting for over 90% of total generation, the report finds. However, many countries – including Saudi Arabia and Iraq – are pursuing policies to reduce the role oil plays in their power systems, freeing it up for higher value uses or export.

As a result, based on today’s policy settings, natural gas is set to meet half of electricity demand growth to 2035 in the Middle East and North Africa. This would help reduce oil-fired output to just 5% of total generation, down from 20% today. Meanwhile, solar PV capacity in the region is on course to increase tenfold by 2035, pushing the share of renewables in the region’s electricity generation to around 25%. And nuclear power is poised to expand strongly, with capacity set to triple.