The Met Office has forecasted the temperature for next year to be 1.46°C above the pre-industrial average (1850-1900). The last three years have all exceeded 1.4°C, and 2026 will be the fourth year in succession to do this. The average global temperature for 2026 is forecast to be between 1.34°C and 1.58°C (with a central estimate of 1.46°C) above the average for the pre-industrial period.

The scientific community has repeatedly warned that warming of more than 1.5°C risks unleashing ever more severe climate change impacts and extreme weather, and decreases adaptation options. Avoiding every fraction of a degree of warming matters to minimise these risks.

Using a combination of observations from the last decade and projections for the next ten years (2015-2034), the WMO estimated earlier this year in the State of the Global Climate report that the current global warming level is 1.37°C above the average of the period from 1850-1900.