“The first seven months of the second Trump administration and 119th Congress have seen the most abrupt shift in energy and climate policy in recent memory,” says Rhodium Group’s annual independent outlook of the evolution of the US energy system. “After the Biden administration adopted meaningful policies to drive decarbonisation, Congress and the White House are now enacting a policy regime that is openly hostile to wind, solar, and electric vehicles and seeks to promote increased fossil fuel production and use.”

While this year’s report the US is on track to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 26-41% in 2040 relative to 2005 levels, emissions outcomes vary due to a range of expectations for economic growth, future fossil fuel prices, and clean energy cost and performance trends, which the report combines to create low, mid, and high emissions scenarios.

In the high emissions scenario, emissions reductions continue for the next couple of years as planned clean energy investments continue to come online, but then flatten from the late 2020s through the mid-2030s, followed by several years of modest increases from 2035 through 2040.

The mid and low scenarios show more meaningful and sustained decarbonisation. Compared with Taking Stock 2024, this year’s projections are higher. For comparison, the report then estimated that the US was on track for a 38-56% decline in emissions in 2035 compared with 2005.

Unsurprisingly, projections this year represent a 0.8-1.2Gt increase in expected GHG emissions in 2035 compared with last year.